Big Idea: The chance that a
future event will happen can be characterized along a probability continuum
of impossible to certain.
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Developing the Big Idea: Children will develop the big idea of
probabilty if they explore it naturally instead of “memorizing” formal rules
and definitions. Developing the big
idea can be taught as a link between a traffic light and the chances
of something occurring.
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Exploring the Big Idea:
Using event
cards, students are asked to decide where they would go along the
continuum. A red light signals a
driver to absolutely “stop.” In this
case, we change stop to impossible.
When a yellow light flashes, a driver should slow down but in some
cases, a driver speeds up and goes through the light. It is “equally likely” that the light could
mean slow down or move along for some drivers. A green light signals “go” or in this case,
“certain”.
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Ways to Explore the Big Idea:
Keep a file of
event cards on display as part of your opening exercises. Have the student of the day choose a card
and place it on the continuum. Another
idea is to have the students place a traffic light at a math station and
place cards at the proper light.
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